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AF8 workshop

The Alpine Fault is predicted to go in our lifetime. Come along to this ICNZ and IBANZ-run event to find out more about how we're planning for it.


The Insurance Council & IBANZ are pleased to facilitate a presentation and discussion on the latest research on the Alpine Fault and related earthquake resilience research, including how a future magnitude 8 earthquake could seriously affect some New Zealanders and the New Zealand economy.

The research indicates that an Alpine Fault event is likely to occur in our lifetime with past measured return periods on average of 300 years. The last event was in 1717 AD.

A magnitude 8 rupture will cause significant damage around the Southern Alps and will be felt widely across the South Island and the lower North Island.

Insurers not only provide material damage coverage for property & infrastructure but also business interruption including interruption for loss of power supplies and closure of transport links.

Power supply interruption in the South Islands could cause significant power supply disruption in the North Island.

Event details

When:  Friday 4 September, 9:30am-1:30pm

Where:  Winter Garden Northern Club, Auckland

CPD:  4 hours (QIB and CIP)

Registration:  Registration must be done through the IBANZ website. You need to create an IBANZ account to access the registration page. Register now



Welcome and introduction

John Lucas, ICNZ


Project AF8 and outputs from the scenario

Dr Caroline Orchiston, University of Otago


The new event research on the Alpine Fault rupture risk

Dr Robert Langridge, GNS Science 


Overview of the AF8 ground motions, coseismic hazards (liquefaction, landslides) nonstructural and loss assessment methodologies
Professor Brendon Bradley, University of Canterbury (Dept of Engineering)


Damage to concrete structures

Dr Rick Henry, University of Auckland (School of Engineering) 


Impacts and consequences of a future AF8, including the impact scenario for casualties, road/power disruption and restoration plans, and other DRM aspects

Associate Professor Tom Wilson, University of Canterbury (Dept of Geological Sciences)


Detailed focus on lifeline modelling from an AF8

Dr Liam Wotherspoon, University of Auckland (School of Engineering) 


The significance of this research on the earthquake models currently available to insurers

Dr Michael Drayton, RMS 


Possible insurance reactions and pricing of risk with Wellington as an illustration

Professor Ilan Noy, Victoria University, Wellington